We have been providing reliable market analysis, due diligence and forecasting services to the waste and bioenergy sectors since 2012.
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We provide a rigorous, real world and resolutely independent view of the market.
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Our History
Natural Capital Analysis was formed in 2012. We are a small, independent, evidence led advisor providing market intelligence, analysis and due diligence to the waste and bioenergy sectors.
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We bring over 40 years of industry experience combined with significant analysis, modelling and forecasting skills to provide our clients with deep insights into their markets now, and in the future.
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Our market knowledge and understanding is rooted in practical experience. Our journey started in the yard, on the picking belts and working directly with waste. As a result we analyse the market from the ground up, taking into account the practical realities of waste management, providing clients with 'real world' analysis.
Our Work
We work primarily in the anaerobic digestion and energy from waste sectors, along with the correlating organic waste and residual waste markets.
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Our approach is resolutely independent, creating our own models, analysis techniques and unique datasets to provide a holistic overview of the market.
Our work is unambiguous, thorough and reliable.
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We maintain close ties with the operational waste management industry in public and private sectors, providing us with real world ‘on the ground’ insights and access to current trends and market activity as it happens.
Our Clients
Our flexible and intuitive way of working means that we largely work with repeat clients, on retention or by referral.
This long term approach to supporting our clients’ success means we have assisted them in almost £1 billion of transactions over the last decade.
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Our client base includes project developers, operational companies, investment managers, government and its agencies. We also work on sub contract to some of the industry’s most trusted names, providing specialist capabilities they cannot.
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We are discreet, supportive and most of all, trusted to deliver.
'We provide a rigorous, real world and resolutely independent view of the market to developers, investors, lenders, public and private sectors, rooted in over 40 years’ experience'
Market Analysis
Whether you are planning new treatment capacity or need a comprehensive view of the current marketplace, our market analysis provides a solid basis for strategic forward planning.
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Waste Arisings and Capture
We have built a reputation for being specialists in the modelling and forecasting of waste arisings and capture, specifically in the organic waste and residual waste markets. We offer forecasts over extensive time periods built on unique modelling tools which have met with approval from developers, lenders, investors and Government. Our modelling is based on real world capture rates and application of a 'whole waste system' approach.
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Legislative Horizon Planning
As the UK becomes more devolved and as waste legislation and regulation diverges, we provide a clear, concise and dependable view on how different legislative approaches will affect your market, your assets and your bottom line.
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Waste Treatment Capacity
Treatment capacity is never as clear cut as it may seem. There are many variables which should be taken into account when estimating actual treatment capacity - standard permits, thermal and hydraulic headroom, front end material handling capabilities, gas injection ceilings, food depackaging capacity - we take account of a wide range of variables to provide real world capacity forecasts.
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Capacity Gap Forecasting
Capacity gaps drive new project development and market gate fees for waste treatment. We use our unique approach to supply and demand modelling to provide short, medium and long term views on capacity gaps at catchment, regional or country level.
Gate Fee Forecasting
Based on the needs of our current clients we have introduced gate fee forecasting as a core offer.
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Subsidies and Carbon Taxes
The end of subsidy regimes, the eventual 'roll off' of existing subsidies and the implementation of carbon taxation and carbon trading schemes all have an effect on gate fee forecasts. We provide a comprehensive evaluation of the impact on your business now and into the future.
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Supply and Demand
Supply and demand for treatment capacity plays a significant role in gate fee forecasting. Our supply and demand modelling provides a capability to evaluate the likely direction of gate fees for distinct markets, time periods and catchments to suit the needs of our clients.
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Energy Revenues
Revenues are often a mixture of gate fee, subsidy and energy exports. As such we provide analysis on current and future markets for power, gas, biomethane and liquid fuels which will have an effect on the drivers to increase or decrease gate fees to maintain profitability.
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Market Gate Fees
Using bespoke market analysis and informed by market surveys we provide short, medium and long term gate fee forecasts based on current fact and future expectation. This is of particular utility in the development of new facilities, in M&A and in bidding for new contract opportunities.
Due Diligence
Our due diligence services have been used to support significant transactions in the UK with a focus on providing clear, concise and objective advice.
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Buyer Side Due Diligence
Our buyer side due diligence is rigorous, thorough and aimed clearly at ensuring buyers are fully informed of the risks and opportunities in any acquisition. Our buyer side experience ensures we are able to work across multi disciplinary teams to provide a collective, collegiate and comprehensive approach to transactions.
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Seller Side Support
Our seller side support provides a range of approaches to ensuring that assets achieve their maximum market value. This includes the provision of market analysis, contract analysis, feedstock and fuel strategies and long term feedstock and energy modelling. We also provide a comprehensive service to ensure that feedstock market and historic data is 'data room ready' to expedite the process.
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Debt and Equity
Our services to debt and equity clients are designed to provide assurances that lending and investment into waste and bioenergy projects is based on high quality, comprehensive, and market approved analysis. Our approach is transaction led, meaning we provide a continuity of support to transactions through their various stages of approval, often over several months.
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Expert Witness
Our expert witness services have been used by Local Authorities and private sector companies. Taking a forensic approach and working in close co-operation with legal and often technical teams means we are able to create the comprehensive and collegiate approach required to achieve a positive outcome for our clients.
Carbon Management and ETS
We are qualified to ISO 14064-1: 2018 and can undertake GHG inventory and Carbon Footprinting measurements on waste and bioenergy activities.
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For Local Authorities
Carbon management plans are essential for public sector organisations to implement measurable and achievable strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Waste and waste treatment technologies require significant technical knowledge on processes and materials for plans to be accurate and achievable. We provide the knowledge, the data and the experience of waste management to ensure your CMP is fit for purpose.
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Carbon Footprinting
Waste and bioenergy operations are notoriously complex and creating accurate carbon footprints requires knowledge on processes, mass balances, materials and a wide range of inputs to be accurate. We bring significant experience to ensure accurate measurements, accurate emissions factors and transparent calculations across Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions.
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Emissions Trading Scheme
With the extension of the UK Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) to energy from waste plants from 2028 waste suppliers and EfW operators alike will look to reduce financial and operational impacts. We provide baseline estimates and work with clients on reduction initiatives for fossil carbon in waste streams.
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Carbon Reduction Initiatives
Using our practical experience in the waste sector we are well placed to provide 'real world', costed, S.M.A.R.T initiatives for carbon reduction across Scope 1,2 and 3 emissions. We can also provide quarterly and annual audits to ensure that your carbon reduction initiatives are delivering meaningful impacts.
Meet the Team
'Our team may be small, but we bring over 40 years combined experience in the waste, resources and bioenergy sectors'
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